By Miguel Sorans, leader of the IWU-FI and Socialist Left in the Left Front-Unity
26 March 2026. The imperialist war of aggression against Iran, which Trump claimed was won from the start, has now lasted a month. Trump says one thing one day and another the next. A week ago, he gave Iran a 48-hour “ultimatum,” after which he would launch an “all-out attack.” The following day, he said he was suspending the attacks for five days because he was in “productive” negotiations with Iranian authorities. Iran denied this. The end of the war is uncertain.
Nothing is credible in Trump’s hands. Anything can happen: the war could escalate further, marines could deploy, or negotiations could actually begin. Netanyahu and Israel have already warned that, beyond any negotiations, they do not intend to halt their military actions against Iran and Lebanon (see box below).
But one thing is clear: it is Trump who is backing down. Despite his claims of Iran’s military annihilation, he presented a rejected fifteen-point proposal.
It has always been said that whoever asks to negotiate in a war is the one who is losing. Trump and his criminal and genocidal aggression are there now. Despite the United States and its ally Israel having evident military superiority, Iran is bogging down Trump politically and militarily.
The reasons why Trump wants to get out of this war
The first reason is that Iran’s resistance has been far greater than Trump and Netanyahu believed.
Iran is a large country of 93 million inhabitants that has defied all military predictions. In the first few days, the Supreme Ayatollah and part of the Iranian military leadership, died, and people believed this marked the beginning of the end, prompting them to take to the streets.
But the opposite happened. Iranian television showed massive demonstrations in Iran, amidst the bombing, to support the government and in condemnation of the aggression. Why? Although a large part of the working class, youth, and women hate the theocratic regime, they hate imperialist and Israeli aggression even more. Iran, though weakened, claims missile capabilities targeting Israel and launched two missiles at Diego Garcia, 4,000 km away.
Israel’s Iron Dome did not collapse, but it is partially overwhelmed. As never before, Israeli cities are being hit by missiles, and air raid sirens are constantly sounding. They thought it would be a “lightning war,” very short, but it hasn’t been. It appears it was Netanyahu who convinced Trump to launch the attack. Meanwhile, Trump hasn’t been able to explain why the aggression is happening. First, he said it would continue until the regime ended, then he said it wasn’t necessary.
Trump’s weakest point isn’t military but political
This war deepens the imperialist political disorder and chaos within the United States. This is another reason for his attempt to back down. There is no support for this war in his own country.
The director of the Counterterrorism Centre, Joseph Kent, resigned, denouncing that they are in the war because of pressure from Israel and that “Iran is not a security threat to the United States.” This represents a major political blow to Trump.
Polls show that 59% reject the action and only 27% approve of it. The MAGA movement is rejecting him as Trump campaigned to end US military spending on wars, focusing on “America First.”
Inter-bourgeois clashes are increasing worldwide. He launched this war without even notifying his old imperialist allies in Europe. He demanded an alliance with Europe and NATO for a joint naval intervention in the Strait of Hormuz. The response was, “It’s not our war.” Trump responded by calling NATO “stupid.”
Amid the oil crisis, Trump authorized the purchase of oil from Russia, which was under sanctions for the war in Ukraine. This favoured Putin, who desperately needs millions of dollars for his economy and the war. As a result, Trump drove Zelensky to speak of “treason.” In short, political chaos reigns.
The war is triggering a surge in the crisis of the global capitalist economy
The Economist, for example, published an editorial stating that “the war is an attack on the world economy.” And this is the disaster that falls on Trump.
Iran’s strong point is its control of the Strait of Hormuz. It is no more than 40 kilometres wide. It is key; 20% of the world’s crude oil passes through it. It is estimated that between 20 and 21 million barrels pass through daily. 25% of liquefied natural gas and 35% of agricultural fertilizers pass through. Already in the United States, fertilizer prices have increased by 30%.
Oil is between $90 and $100 a barrel, whereas before this action it was $70 and reached $120, and it could go even higher; nobody knows. And the consequences are more inflation for the United States, but the effect will be global.
Of course, the ones who profit are the multinational oil and arms companies. The global outlook is uncertain because it is unknown when and how this war will end. It is possible that the economic crisis of capitalism will worsen, affecting the mass movement. The decline in the standard of living will increase because of the rise in the price of necessities worldwide.
Expand the mobilisation against the aggression against Iran and Lebanon
From the IWU-FI, we call for continued denunciation of this criminal aggression by Trump and Israel and for mobilisation to support the people of Iran and Lebanon. We condemn the imperialist aggression against Iran, with no support for the Iranian theocratic dictatorship. Our anti-imperialist campaign fights Trump/Netanyahu’s Mideast wars. The governments of the world must break relations with Israel. The Arab peoples must demand that their governments break with the United States and stop collaborating with the aggression. Support for Gaza and the Palestinian people. Free Palestine from the river to the sea.
Anti-war protests, chanting “No to War,” are occurring in the US, Berlin, London, and Madrid, aiming to defeat Trump and imperialist aggression.
Israel has already warned that it will not stop the military aggression
Trump does not know how to get out of this war. He keeps saying that the war will end “when I say so.” But he faces opposition from Netanyahu, who has an original position. They have already declared that the Zionist state will continue to protect “its security” and that any negotiation will not limit them in their “defense.”
Israel has no interest in negotiating with Iran. It is not its common course of action. Netanyahu benefits from a prolonged war because he has the country united behind his government. The entire opposition and all the pseudo-progressive left-wing Zionism are supporting the war. Israel continues bombing Iran and Lebanon, coupled with a ground invasion in the south, which it intends to annex. And it is taking advantage of the situation to continue its ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and Gaza.
