By Patrik König
February 24, 2025. Many articles have been written and much has been said about the early elections in Germany. Germany’s economic strength significantly affects Europe and the world. The chancellor elections are here; let’s analyse initial results and future prospects for the revolutionary left.
The election results
84% turnout, a German record, confirmed polls: conservatives up, government down. In a distorted way, it expresses a sector that punishes the government of the old social democracy (SPD) and allied with the Greens and a minor liberal party, voting for the conservative alliance the Christian Democratic Union / Bavarian Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) of Friedrich Merz, achieving 28.5% of the votes, which had already governed for years with Angela Merkel. Or for the extreme right of Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 20.6%, almost double that of the 2021 elections. The Left’s growth highlights polarization and a move towards radical politics.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Chancellor Olaf Scholz came in third place with 16%, making the worst election in its history. Their allies the Greens are fourth with almost 12%.
A vote for the far-right reflects disillusionment with established parties.
Rephrase 1: The media will show us this “electoral game” in the coming days, where coalitions and positions are negotiated like a cattle market. Whichever coalition comes out, none will bring fundamental solutions to the current problems of housing, health, education, growing militarism, layoffs in industry, etc.
The electoral campaign
The electoral campaign was marked by a clear xenophobic tone. The major parties (SPD, CDU, Greens, and AFD) seemed to compete to see who had a more anti-immigration policy. The debate was focused on demonstrating that all the ills are because of the large number of foreigners and that, therefore, they must be “regulated” say some, others, like the far-right AFD, expel them outright.
But anyone who makes a minimally serious analysis knows that this attack on immigration has a purely electoral and populist use. It is a mere instrument to distract most of the population from the genuine problems that afflict the country and, thus, avoid discussing the actual solutions. It is more than proven that Germany cannot expel immigrants, but, on the contrary, needs immigration to fill hundreds of thousands of unfilled jobs because of a lack of labour, and that it also needs immigration because of the deep demographic problems it has because of its low birth rate. If a policy of expelling immigrants were carried out, German capitalist production would be paralyzed almost immediately.
The German capitalist structure in crisis
The real problem lies in the structural crisis of its economy or what many economists call the “end of the German miracle” or “end of a cycle”. This situation of deep crisis is because of several issues. Some of an international nature and others of an internal nature, which are intertwined. Let us look at some of them.
On the one hand, there is the worsening of the global capitalist crisis that has generated a strong inter-imperialist dispute, in which Germany is caught between the two main contenders, the US, and China, and although it is the fourth or third largest economy in the world, depending on the figures taken into account, it is far behind the two main powers. This situation forces it to fight for a place in this contest with a bad balance of forces. In addition, it is mainly an exporting country and this “trade war” with tariffs, customs quotas, and strong fights for markets does not benefit it at all.
Other elements to take into account are that, since World War II, it continues to be a country very controlled by the US; the crisis in the sector very affected its primary industry, the automotive industry,; the war between Russia and Ukraine caused it to stop receiving low-cost gas and oil to operate its industry; it is a very backward country in everything related to digitalisation; etc. Added to all these problems was the trigger for the early elections, which was that the German Constitution prohibited the government, headed by the Social Democrats Scholz, from increasing debt to reactivate the economy.
No real alternative for workers
Unfortunately, there was no party with a minimum representation that raised an alternative program for the working class and the people.
Thus, the CDU, AFD or BSD (the party of Sara Wagenknecht, former leader of Die Linke) focused their campaign on immigration, hiding their inability to give an economic proposal that would respond to the current situation. The SPD and the Greens, for their part, focused on the “beware, the right is coming” campaign to try to mobilise their electorate and, in this way, ignore the disaster that their current government is being and also hide the fact that they do not have an alternative proposal to get out of the crisis.
Focusing the debate on immigration served the parties of the regime to avoid presenting concrete proposals, and the few times that economic solutions were discussed, some parties proposed the policy of “zero deficit”, cuts in all aspects to balance the numbers; and others proposed the old model of going into more debt to reactivate the internal market. And as we already know, neither of these two projects brings benefits for the workers and the people. All these parties, with their nuances, govern and will govern for big German capitalism.
Some conclusions from the elections and the perspectives
It is very likely that a government coalition will emerge, headed by the conservative Merz, which does not have a majority and a clear unity to implement the plan of cuts that they need for German companies to regain confidence and improve their profit rates. The numbers show the lack of a clear majority and that will make it difficult to get a new solid government. But regardless of how solid the future government is or whether it will complete its mandate, what is certain is that, whether with the “zero deficit” model or the model of increasing debt, what awaits the working class are more cuts in social issues such as education, health, and pensions, more labour flexibility “so that German companies are more competitive”, an increase in the military budget, support for the genocide in Palestine, etc.
As we said at the beginning, the elections had to be brought forward, and this was an event that is not at all normal in Germany, but a clear sign of a political crisis. The stability that reigned for decades is coming to an end and is giving way to increasing social polarisation. The crisis is no longer affecting only the periphery, but has entered and is here to stay in the heart of Europe. There is manifest social discontent and an increase in political and union conflicts. In the last two years, there have been strikes and protests for wage increases or better working conditions in the metal industry, railway workers, port workers, Lufthansa ground staff, among others.
Faced with this situation, the working class must stop being a mere spectator of this capitalist horror film and be at the forefront of the struggles, together with the youth and the popular sectors, that are taking place and those to come. We will have to confront the new government from the first minute. In the workplaces and schools, we have to elect combative delegates. We demand the union leaders to take the lead in the struggles and we must raise programs that represent our interests and provide fundamental and class-based responses to the current problems. It is in this process that programs and parties are put to the test. This is the basis for the development of an alternative and class-based political organisation, of a truly independent left, which is also an alternative to confront and defeat the growth of the far right. This is the moment when it becomes necessary, and also possible, to build a socialist and revolutionary party. The militants of the IWU-FI in Germany are working with this perspective.
