Tout ce que l’on peut écrire sur l’impact de la crise que le monde connaît depuis l’émergence de la pandémie de Covid-19 n’est jamais suffisant. Elle est sans précédent et le restera dans l’histoire. Pour aggraver les choses, au moment de clore cette note, la pandémie n’est pas terminée, et ne semble pas l’être non plus. Le coronavirus a ouvert toutes sortes de débats, notamment sur ce que sera l’avenir de l’humanité. Trois points sont certains : 1) Le capitalisme connaît la pire crise économique de son histoire. 2) Les multinationales veulent sauver leurs pertes au détriment de la classe ouvrière. 3) Ceux qui souffrent le plus du Covid-19, et qui en subiront les pires conséquences, sont les peuples du monde.
Par Miguel Sorans
Tout ce qui est écrit aujourd’hui devrait avoir une date d’édition, car les chiffres de la pandémie sont, jour après jour, en retard. Notre premier article a été publié le 14 février. À l’époque, il y avait 60 000 infections en Chine et la maladie commençait tout juste à se propager à d’autres pays.
Au cours de la première semaine de mars, 110 000 personnes ont été déclarées infectées et 3 800 sont mortes dans le monde entier. Au moment où nous écrivons ces lignes, en juillet, il y a eu plus de 10 millions de cas de coronavirus et 501 000 décès. L’Organisation mondiale de la santé (OMS) a confirmé que la fin de la pandémie n’était pas proche. Les États-Unis sont le premier pays touché, avec 2,5 millions de cas et 125 000 décès. Le second est le Brésil, avec 1,3 million de personnes et plus de 60 000 décès. Elle se répand au Mexique et en Amérique du Sud. En Inde, il y a eu 500 000 infections. Le Japon et la Corée du Sud ont signalé de nouveaux foyers. En Chine, des mesures restrictives ont de nouveau été mises en œuvre en raison de la progression du virus à Pékin.
Pourquoi est-il si difficile d’arrêter la pandémie ? Pourquoi y a-t-il de nouveaux foyers là où elle semblait avoir pris fin ?
Il y a une combinaison de causes. La première est qu’on ne sait pas encore scientifiquement comment la combattre. Non seulement parce que le virus est nouveau et changeant, mais aussi parce que la recherche épidémiologique des gouvernements et des institutions privées est conditionnée par les profits. Le vaccin n’est pas retardé par l’absence de coordination scientifique mondiale, mais par une lutte entre des laboratoires privés, soutenus par leurs gouvernements, pour savoir qui obtiendra le marché.
Il y a aussi d’autres causes qui sont liées aux actions criminelles et irresponsables des gouvernements capitalistes et de leurs multinationales. Ce n’est pas une phrase rhétorique. Des négateurs du coronavirus, comme Trump et Bolsonaro, à l’Union européenne et à la Chine elle-même, en passant par tous les gouvernements capitalistes, avec leurs inégalités, agissant dans la logique du profit capitaliste. Aucun d’entre eux ne met en place les moyens économiques possibles pour lutter contre la pandémie. Les gouvernements ont détruit les systèmes publics de santé de l’État pour favoriser la santé privée et maintenant ils ne mettent pas assez d’argent pour les récupérer. Pour améliorer les salaires, protéger les travailleurs de la santé, pour plus de respirateurs et d’éléments de test. Ils n’investissent pas assez d’argent pour couvrir les besoins des travailleurs qui n’effectuent pas les tâches essentielles, des petits commerçants, ou des milliards de chômeurs ou de travailleurs précaires. L'»aide» est surtout destinée à sauver les entreprises. C’est pourquoi les quarantaines sont respectées à moitié, ou pas du tout, comme le font Trump et Bolsonaro. Pour eux, la première chose est «l’économie». C’est pourquoi, dans tous les pays, la pression des multinationales, des hommes d’affaires et des banques pour reprendre les activités a prévalu, ce qui entraîne la circulation de milliards de dollars. En Europe, tout s’ouvre pour favoriser le tourisme et les employeurs du secteur, avec le risque de provoquer de nouvelles infections.
Dans quel monde allons-nous ?
En plein milieu de la tragédie de Covid-19, la question de savoir ce que sera le prochain monde a également été débattue. Les économistes, les commentateurs et les politiciens donnent leur avis et écrivent sur tout.
Une personnalité mondiale de premier plan a déclaré qu’il était nécessaire de «promouvoir une reprise plus inclusive» (…) «d’accroître les investissements publics dans les soins de santé pour protéger les plus vulnérables et minimiser les risques de futures épidémies» afin d’évoluer «vers un monde plus vert, plus intelligent et plus juste à l’avenir». C’est ce qu’a déclaré, de manière inhabituelle, Kristalina Georgieva, la directrice du FMI, lors de sa participation à une vidéoconférence avec le prince Charles de Galles à l’occasion du lancement de l’initiative «La grande relance » (3/6/2020, Télam, Argentine). La crise du système est telle que déjà ses dirigeants disent n’importe quoi pour essayer de couvrir le désastre qu’ils ont causé. En outre, la responsable de l’ajustement mondial affirme que nous allons vers un monde «plus vert» et «plus juste».
Un éditorial du journal britannique Financial Times a déclaré : «La redistribution sera de nouveau à l’ordre du jour (…) des réformes radicales sont nécessaires pour forger une société qui fonctionne pour tous» (BAENegocios, 5/4/2020). Le président argentin, Alberto Fernandez, a déclaré qu'»un capitalisme qui n’est plus juste ce n’est pas un bon capitalisme» et a proposé d’aller vers «un capitalisme qui est gagnant-gagnant» (Télam, 4/6/2020).
Au-delà de la coïncidence frappante entre le chef du FMI, le Financial Times et le péroniste Alberto Fernandez, de demander un capitalisme plus «juste», un tel projet est un «double discours», c’est-à-dire de simples mensonges. Il n’y a aucune possibilité de réforme ou de restructuration «progressive» du capitalisme. Le système capitaliste-impérialiste est injuste, irrationnel et pour les riches. Sa raison d’être est basée sur l’exploitation de la classe ouvrière et le pillage du peuple et de ses richesses pour des superprofits. La croissance de la pauvreté, la surpopulation et les changements environnementaux ont été le terreau de l’émergence et du développement de Covid-19.
On nous dit de nous laver les mains, par exemple, et il y a 2,1 milliards de personnes dans le monde qui n’ont pas accès à de l’eau propre. C’est cela le capitalisme. Avant le coronavirus, 1,3 milliard de personnes vivaient déjà dans la pauvreté, 172 millions étaient sans travail et 1,4 milliard avaient un emploi précaire. Maintenant, le rapport de l’OIT annonce qu’au cours du deuxième trimestre de l’année, 480 millions d’emplois ont été perdus (Clarín,1/7/2020). De son côté, le directeur du FMI a annoncé qu’il y aurait 300 millions de nouveaux chômeurs après la pandémie. Une catastrophe. Rien à voir avec le «monde vert» et «plus juste» dont elle a parlé lors de sa conférence de presse.
Malheureusement, nous allons vers un monde pire pour la classe ouvrière et le peuple. Nous sommes déjà en transit. Le grand problème pour l’humanité est qu’en pleine pandémie, l’impérialisme, les multinationales et leurs gouvernements approfondissent leurs plans d’ajustement. Ils veulent faire payer au peuple la crise du coronavirus, en fermant des entreprises, en licenciant massivement des travailleurs et en baissant les salaires.
C’est pourquoi les socialistes révolutionnaires ont encore la tâche de lutter pour mettre fin au système capitaliste-impérialiste. Il y aura un monde juste en imposant des gouvernements ouvriers qui commencent la construction d’une société socialiste.
La plus grave crise économique capitaliste de son histoire
Toutes les données indiquent que le capitalisme connaît sa crise la plus aiguë. Supérieur à tout ce qui est connu. Il y a déjà des coïncidences, même parmi les économistes bourgeois, qu’elle soit pire que la fameuse crise de 1929, comme la plus récente, de 2007/08.
«D’ici à la fin de 2021, la perte de revenus dépassera celle de toute récession précédente au cours des 100 dernières années en dehors du temps de guerre, avec des conséquences terribles et durables pour les individus, les entreprises et les gouvernements», a déclaré Laurence Boone de l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE) (Clarín, Argentine, 11/6/2020).
Les porte-parole de l’impérialisme et des multinationales attribuent la crise à l’émergence de la pandémie. Ils veulent cacher leur débâcle et leur responsabilité. La crise économique capitaliste mondiale avait commencé avant. Le coronavirus a ajouté du combustible au feu et l’a fait s’aggraver à des niveaux sans précédent.
Fin 2019, seuls les États-Unis avaient connu une croissance, mais très légère. «Depuis 2009, la croissance annuelle du PIB américain par habitant n’a été que de 1,6 % en moyenne. Fin 2019, le PIB par habitant était inférieur de 13 % à la tendance de croissance d’avant 2008. Cet écart équivaut à 10 200 dollars par personne, soit une perte de revenu permanente. (Michael Roberts, Sin Permiso, 3/5/2020). L’Europe était au bord de la récession, l’Amérique latine était en stagnation. La Chine a connu une croissance de 6,2 %, le chiffre le plus bas depuis 1992, où elle avait récemment connu une croissance de 12 à 14 % par an. Le capitalisme n’a jamais pu se remettre de la crise économique aiguë ouverte en 2007. On se demande si elle était égale ou supérieure à celle de 1929.
Jamais dans l’histoire de l’humanité, il n’y a eu un niveau d’endettement aussi élevé. En termes absolus, la dette mondiale a atteint 253 000 milliards de dollars au dernier trimestre 2019, soit 322 % du PIB mondial. La crise dure depuis douze ans maintenant. L’économiste bourgeois Larry Summers l’a définie comme une «stagnation séculaire».
Aujourd’hui, le FMI et l’OCDE prévoient tous deux que l’économie mondiale s’effondrera en 2020. Selon l’OCDE, la récession sera de 7,6 %. Le FMI a déclaré que «pour la première fois, toutes les régions devraient connaître une croissance négative en 2020. (Clarín, 25/6/2020). L’Europe chuterait de 10,7 %, les États-Unis de 8 %, l’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes de 9,4 % et la Chine de 1 % seulement.
La conséquence de cette débâcle est la vague de licenciements massifs, de suspensions, de réductions de salaires et l’augmentation des niveaux de pauvreté et de faim dans le monde.
Pour faire face à la crise, les masses sont de retour
L’important c’est que les mobilisations et les grèves contre cette attaque des multinationales et des gouvernements capitalistes commencent à reprendre. La vague de luttes de 2019 a connu une impasse dans les premiers mois de la pandémie. La crainte de la contagion commence déjà à se dissiper face à l’énorme assaut contre la classe ouvrière et le peuple. Les luttes ont lieu pour exiger des mesures de sécurité contre le coronavirus, en raison des revendications des travailleurs de la santé, comme contre les licenciements, les réductions de salaire ou les fermetures d’entreprises. Également contre la répression et le racisme avec les mobilisations massives que la rébellion aux États-Unis a provoquées dans le monde entier. Au Liban, ils ont de nouveau marché contre la faim. A Hong Kong, pour les libertés démocratiques. Le secteur de la santé a mené des manifestations et des grèves en France, en Espagne, en Italie, en Tunisie, au Venezuela, au Brésil, en Argentine, en Bolivie, au Pérou, au Panama, entre autres. Il y a eu d’importantes grèves syndicales pour réclamer la sécurité, par exemple aux États-Unis et en Italie du Nord. Des milliers de personnes se sont mobilisées à Paris contre les licenciements de Renault. Grève indéfinie chez Nissan à Barcelone en vue de la fermeture. Grève d’un jour des métallurgistes italiens contre les licenciements de la multinationale sidérurgique Mittal. Grandes manifestations dans les quartiers populaires de Santiago du Chili pour la nourriture. « Cacerolazos » et mobilisations pour «hors de Bolsonaro» au Brésil. En Argentine, il y a des grèves d’entreprises contre les licenciements et des grèves dans les transports parce qu’elles ne perçoivent pas leurs salaires. Même à Curaçao, l’île néerlandaise des Caraïbes, il y a eu des manifestations de rue contre les licenciements massifs.
Nous sommes persuadés que ce processus de licenciements massifs et de réductions salariales augmentera la mobilisation des travailleurs et des populations qui remettront en cause les ajustements, ainsi que les gouvernements qui les mettent en œuvre. Il devient de plus en plus évident que pour faire face à la crise actuelle du coronavirus, comme celle qui suivra la pandémie, il est nécessaire d’avancer dans des actions unifiées au niveau international.
L’UIT-QI encourage ces luttes en exigeant que la crise des coronavirus soit payée par les capitalistes. Nous proposons de lutter pour un plan d’urgence ouvrier et populaire dans chaque pays et au niveau international. Partout dans le monde, il faut de l’argent pour la santé, les salaires, le travail et la nourriture. Pour des taxes progressives élevées sur les multinationales, les grands entrepreneurs, les propriétaires terriens et les banques, pour le non-paiement des dettes extérieures et contre toute forme de répression et pour le droit de manifester. La pandémie de coronavirus n’est pas terminée.
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