Por: Miguel Lamas
La decisión de Donald Trump, anunciada como un festejo nacionalista en la Casa Blanca, causó conmoción mundial. Más allá de que Trump es criticado hasta por grandes empresarios, el hecho es otra muestra de la impotencia del sistema capitalista imperialista para impedir el desastre climático global.
Trump dice que el Acuerdo de París «perjudica a Estados Unidos». En su campaña afirmó que el cambio climático es «un cuento chino». Ahora declara también querer un «nuevo acuerdo», que «no perjudique a Estados Unidos». El retiro del Acuerdo de París significa claramente que Estados Unidos, uno de los dos mayores emisores de dióxido de carbono (CO2) del mundo (el otro es China), no está dispuesto, en realidad, a aceptar ningún acuerdo que lo obligue a reducir estas emisiones. Estados Unidos tampoco firmó el tratado de Kyoto, de 1997, el primer acuerdo global climático.
El Acuerdo de París sobre Cambio Climático fue firmado en diciembre del 2015 por 195 naciones. Establece una reducción voluntaria de las emisiones de CO2 que producen los combustibles fósiles al quemarse. El principal objetivo del acuerdo es mantener el aumento de la temperatura global muy por debajo de los 2 grados centígrados durante este siglo, en relación a la temperatura promedio de la era preindustrial. Esto evitaría efectos catastróficos en el planeta.
Sin embargo, el Acuerdo de París, aun siendo el más importante de la historia sobre el tema, por su firma casi unánime a nivel mundial, no establece compromisos concretos de los países para llegar a este objetivo, salvo de informar de sus planes de reducción de CO2. Es decir, básicamente no escapa a la declaratoria de «buenas intenciones». En el marco de este frágil acuerdo, el retiro de Estados Unidos puede iniciar su derrumbe dejándolo totalmente en letra muerta. Posterior al retiro de Estados Unidos, se reunieron la Unión Europea y China que pretendían llegar a un entendimiento bilateral que «reforzara» el Acuerdo de París. Pero no lo lograron, enfrascados en sus propias disputas comerciales.
¿Qué significa entonces el retiro de Estados Unidos? Que ni siquiera se cumplirán los limitadísimos objetivos del Acuerdo de París y se aleja aún más la posibilidad de «mejorarlo» en las revisiones periódicas que se habían establecido. Mientras tanto, el 2016 fue el año record en la historia de emisión de CO2.
¿El problema es el «crecimiento» económico?
Organizaciones ecologistas que critican el Acuerdo de París, dicen que la única solución es el «decrecimiento», es decir dejar de «crecer»económicamente. Al decir esto manejan un concepto de «crecimiento» económico que es discutible. Porque lo que hoy hay es un crecimiento totalmente deformado por el dominio de las multinacionales. Es como si a una persona le creciera más y más un brazo y una pierna y no el resto del cuerpo. Así, en la economía mundial hay ramas económicas enteras que benefician al capital, pero no a la humanidad, tales como los sectores de alimentos basura, la industria de armamentos, la agroindustria contaminante, la minería depredadora o los medicamentos inútiles o enfermantes. Mientras tanto, no «crecen» los alimentos saludables, la atención de salud popular o una planificación racional y no contaminante del transporte público. En tiempos de ajustes antipopulares decirle a un trabajador de cualquier país que tiene que «decrecer» económicamente, significa que tienen que bajarle el salario o la jubilación o los servicios, o directamente quedarse sin trabajo.
Planteado así, parecería un problema sin solución. Sin embargo, desde el punto de vista científico tecnológico existe la posibilidad de frenar el calentamiento global desde ahora. Para esto se requiere en primer lugar un cambio en la tecnología de producción de energía, pasando a energías no contaminantes (como solares, hidroeléctricas locales, eólicas, etc.) que ya se están aplicando exitosamente en muchos países (en Alemania por ejemplo el 30% de su energía se obtiene de paneles solares).
Este cambio gradual hacia energías limpias es costoso. Algunos economistas han calculado que serían unos 240.000 millones de dólares al año. Sin embargo, visto a escala mundial, es menos de la mitad de lo que gasta sólo Estados Unidos en producir armamento. Es decir, en teoría estaría totalmente al alcance de los presupuestos de los países ricos impulsar ese cambio.
El problema no es el clima sino el sistema
Por todo esto, el problema no es el «crecimiento» económico, ni tampoco que no haya posibilidades tecnológicas y económicas para frenar el cambio climático. La cuestión es social, de clase. Es imposible bajo un sistema basado en el enriquecimiento de multinacionales poderosísimas, que dirigen los Estados, un cambio que haga disminuir sus ganancias. Esto significa que es absolutamente imposible impedir el desastre ecológico, sin destruir el sistema de dominio de las multinacionales, es decir el capitalismo imperialista.
Este sistema es el que está llevando a la humanidad al desastre. Hay más de 1.000 millones de habitantes que pasan hambre, cada día a más personas les falta agua potable, centenares de millones respiran aire envenenado o consumen alimentos en malas condiciones. A esto se le suma lo que ya se avizora en el horizonte como una catástrofe ecológica que agravará aún más esta situación. Millones de personas, en particular los jóvenes, se preguntan cuál será su futuro en esta situación y dirigen con toda razón su atención a los problemas ecológicos. En nuestro país hubo y hay grandes luchas contra la minería contaminante y contra el envenenamiento de los fumigantes. Los socialistas, que hacemos nuestras todas y cada una de las reivindicaciones ambientalistas, denunciamos a las multinacionales y a sus gobiernos como responsables. Decimos que no habrá salida mientras no se las expropie. Porque cuidar y no destruir el planeta, nuestra «casa común», sólo será posible en una sociedad de verdadero socialismo, sin multinacionales. En donde los trabajadores y el pueblo, hoy oprimidos, gobiernen en beneficio de las mayorías.
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