Estado Español: Balance de las elecciones del 26 de junio

Estado Español: Balance de las elecciones del 26 de junioPincha Unidos Podemos y se concentra el voto de la derecha

El mensaje emitido por todos los partidos mayoritarios en la campaña se centró en el sorpasso de Podemos-IU: unos generando miedo, otros alentándolo, otros combatiéndolo. Y eso dejó en segundo plano que todos, hasta las encuestas, daban por hecho el triunfo del PP. El escándalo de las últimas filtraciones de Fernández Díaz aún contribuían más a olvidarlo. Cuando el sorpasso no se da, y además retrocede el PSOE, y el PP agranda su diferencia, pareciera que todo gira a la derecha, pero analizando los datos no es así, el PP concentra el voto de la derecha pero no crece más. El PSOE sigue hundiéndose, y la clave está en el incremento de la abstención a la que vuelve 1,2 millones de votos de Podemos-IU. El fracaso de esta opción es la clave de los resultados.

Los 137 escaños del PP y los 85 del PSOE no dan más estabilidad al régimen, el bipartidismo no se recupera ni resuelven la formación de gobierno, aunque parecieran frenar una crisis acelerada. Y ello porque el retroceso histórico del PSOE en las CCAA de los barones, debilita las posibilidades de la gran coalición, e incluso Susana Díaz habla de ir a la oposición

De otro lado, la monarquía no se asentaba únicamente en PP y PSOE, sino en el control de las burguesías nacionales de sus territorios (CiU y PNV), y ese control se desvanece. Ambas comunidades se tiñen de morado tras la exigencia del referéndum de autodeterminación, mientras en Catalunya, ERC se pone al frente del sector independentista. Así las cosas, el tema nacional sigue en el centro de los problemas del régimen y volverá a ser una piedra determinante en la formación de gobierno e inclusive en la crisis interna desatada tras los resultados en Podemos-IU. Mientras, la UE se cansa de esperar a aplicarnos la multa por el desfase del déficit y recoger los 10.000 millones de recortes que exigía para este año: le urge la formación del gobierno que lo aplique.

PP: concentración de voto en una opción que no repara en nada

Si algo demuestra el crecimiento del PP es que a una importante franja del electorado no le preocupa ni la corrupción ni las cloacas del estado, ni las manipulaciones: aparte de la burguesía, recogen también la voluntad de estabilidad y orden de sectores de pequeña burguesía asustada (miedo a Podemos, a nacionalismos, al Brexit…). Pero no son los resultados de Aznar que, frente a la amenaza de sorpasso de Anguita al PSOE, obtenía más de 10 millones de votos. Ni los 11 que le dieron la mayoría absoluta: ahora no alcanza los 8.

Al contrario, y ante los dubitativos resultados que obtuvo C’s en diciembre y su posterior flirteo con el PSOE sin obtener resultados, la burguesía toca a rebato y concentra el voto útil en el PP. Y logra imponerse en todas las CCAA excepto en Euskadi y Catalunya.

En total obtiene 700.000 votos más que el 20D. Pero en los resultados polarizados, las cuentas son más fáciles: probablemente 400.000 vienen de C’s; la caída libre de 100.000 votos de UPyD; parte de sectores de las grandes burguesías nacionales que vienen de los 70.000 de Unió en Catalunya, de los 20.000 que pierde el PNV o de los 15.00 de su equivalente navarro GBAI; y un sinfín de grupos de centro y derecha que pierden muchas plumas: -10.000 de VOX, -2.000 de CCD,… Y, como hemos viniendo insistiendo hasta ahora, el PP sigue siendo el voto útil de la extrema derecha, pues los grupos que se presentan como tales mantienen exactamente lo que antes sumaban Falange y Democracia Nacional: menos de 10.000 votos.

C’s en su descargo, ha apelado a la injusticia de la Ley d’Hont. Así en Castilla-León, habiendo obtenido 200.000 votos tenían sólo 1 diputado, mientras que el PP con el triple obtenía 18; pero también, perdiendo más de 100.000 votos C’s en Catalunya, la misma ley le mantiene los diputados. Siempre hemos denunciado lo antidemocrático de la ley electoral, y por eso también, siempre acostumbramos a hacer los análisis con votos. Pero con o sin Ley, no se puede ni minimizar el fracaso de C’s ni el aire que le da a Rajoy la concentración del voto útil de la derecha: recupera Extremadura y Andalucía, la mayoría absoluta en Galiza, el crecimiento de 110.000 votos en Madrid y los 80.000 de Valencia, lugares estos últimos en los que además, la abstención estuvo por debajo de la media estatal.

Sólo que ese aire que le da la concentración de voto, resitúa la lectura interesada de gran consolidación de Rajoy. Las dificultades de gobernabilidad que hay sobre la mesa, reflejan que, en esencia, la situación es parecida a la del 20D.

El PSOE sigue en retroceso, pero no se hunde

Su crisis no tiene freno, y sigue en caída libre, perdiendo 100.000 votos, de nuevo con el peor record de su historia con 5,4 millones de votos y 85 diputados. Pero además el retroceso le hace perder bastiones históricos, como son Extremadura y Andalucía y no tener ni una sola CCAA. Con ello además se debilita la base material de los barones del PSOE que, encabezados por Susana Díaz ve debilitarse su posición interna frente Pedro Sánchez. De las 7 provincias andaluzas, sólo retiene Sevilla, Huelva y Jaén.

Sorprende sin embargo su resistencia global probablemente impulsada contra el sorpasso de Iglesias que le llevan a tener ligeros repuntes de votos en la cornisa cantábrica: +2.000 en Euskadi y Asturias, +3.000 en Nafarroa, 800 en Cantabria…

La clave electoral: del sorpasso a la pérdida de votantes de Podemos-IU

El batacazo de la coalición de Podemos, con confluencias e IU, es la clave que explica los resultados. De sus entusiastas cálculos del sorpasso al PSOE, emulando a Anguita, ha pasado a perder un millón doscientos mil votos. Si Podemos e IU sumaron 6,1 millones el 20D (un 24,3% del total), ahora Unidos Podemos obtiene 4,9 millones (un 21,11% del electorado) aunque mantenga diputados, el resto es exactamente lo que se ha incrementado la abstención entre el 20D y el 26J.

1. Podemos-IU se desinfla y alimenta la abstención

La abstención crece algo menos de 3 puntos alcanzando el 30,16%: son casi 10,5 millones de votos. Por encima de la media, destacan por su peso político las CCAA históricas (Catalunya 34,38%, 5 puntos más que el 20D, Euskadi 32,56% y Galicia 30,37%), a las que se suman Asturias y Andalucía. Son a destacar por su contrario, no llegando al 26%, Madrid y Valencia.

Parte de esta lectura de falta de opción política por la izquierda, es el continuo crecimiento del PACMA (60.000 más); que sin embargo no tiene expresión en partidos adscritos a una izquierda stalinista que como PCPE o PCOE reducen sus votos entre el 20D y el 26J.

2. Pérdidas en todos los frentes:

En Madrid, la debacle es más que significativa de los 946.450 votos que sumaban Podemos e IU, han pasado a 725.023, perdiendo 221.422. Entre las poblaciones significativas, sólo se mantiene como primera fuerza en Rivas Vaciamadrid, también perdiendo 3.000 votos. Incluso en localidades del cinturón industrial en que la suma de Podemos e IU el 20D los hubiera situado como primera fuerza ahora siguen quedando como segunda tras el PP por la pérdida sufrida (Getafe) o se mantienen como la 3ª con menos votos (Leganés).

Parecido ocurre en Andalucía que pasan del millón de votos entre las dos fuerzas a 785.000, perdiendo 215.000: 58.000 en Sevilla -20.000 sólo en la ciudad-, 40.000 en Málaga o 38.000 en Cádiz,… hasta los 10.000 de Almería que le acarrean la pérdida de un diputado que compensa por la Ley d’Hont en Jaén, donde también pierde.

En Galiza pierden 70.000 votos (4,5 puntos) pagando caros los choques entre Beira y la dirección de IU, además de la crisis e intervención de Madrid en Podemos. En Coruña donde se concentran los principales ayuntamientos logrados por las Mareas -A Coruña, Santiago y Ferrol-, siguen por delante del PSdeG, pero si antes la diferencia era de seis puntos, ahora es de poco más de uno (22,9% frente a 21,8%). En Lugo además pierde un escaño, que se queda el PP.

Tampoco se salva la cacareada fórmula «a la valenciana». Del 29% de votos que recogían Podemos-Compromís de un lado y Unidad Popular-En comú que los hubiera dejado a solo 2 puntos del PP, la fórmula Podemos-Compromís-EUPV les ha hecho perder 130.000 votos y los ha dejado a más de 5 puntos del primer lugar.

Ni en su versión balear, que pierde 40.000 votos al sumar Podemos-EUIB-MES: ¡más de 7 puntos!

Donde ganan, Euskadi y Catalunya, es en retroceso: -20.000 y -81.000 respectivamente.

3. La explicación de estas rotundas pérdidas es política, y no sólo de las reiteradas pruebas de personalismo y burocratización en todos los rincones del partido de Pablo Iglesias, sino también de propuestas: paga su oportunismo y su giro a la derecha. Tampoco parecería que es la penalización por no haber investido al PSOE, sino por haberse manejado en claves absolutamente electoralistas, centrados en estudios demoscópicos, reclamando «la patria» al estilo venezolano –y por tanto adaptando el discurso a uno u otro sector de votantes-, confiando en que la suma matemática, le daría, con la Ley d’Hont 14 diputados más. Sin embargo, los resultados son políticos y no demoscópicos:

1. Hay sumas que restan. Ir con IU, no sólo no ha dado los supuestos frutos como aglutinante de la izquierda. De un lado, porque sectores de IU han manifestado su negativa a votar la confluencia con un Podemos que ha perdido absolutamente cualquier referencia de clase; pero sobretodo porque ha perdido amplios sectores de juventud que venían de la abstención y votaron Podemos porque significaban una posibilidad de ruptura con lo establecido, de radicalidad, o que venían de romper con IU. La suma les ha restado absolutamente en todos lados, salvo en Nafarroa donde mantienen el resultado: ¡ni tan siquiera en Marinaleda, donde pierden 100 votos!.

2. Durante la campaña han repetido hasta la saciedad la voluntad de ser la nueva socialdemocracia, un «centro» absolutamente alejado de cualquier referente de clase en su voluntad de atraer votantes del PSOE. Su discurso aún ha girado más a la derecha, y con ello, es mucho más lo que ha perdido: porque se ha desvinculado de un amplio sector de izquierdas que como veníamos apuntando empieza a buscar una ruptura que aunque Iglesias no le ofrecía, pretendía usar Podemos como herramienta.

3. En las grandes ciudades en que gobiernan desde el año pasado, las pérdidas se agrandan, cuando con su gobierno hubieran podido compensarlas: Madrid, -13.000, casi 5 puntos; A Coruña -8.000, más de 5; Vigo -9.000 más de 4. También Barcelona: -12.000 –aunque sean sólo la pérdida de 1 punto en la representatividad del voto porque la abstención sube 5 puntos respecto el 20D-. Es decir, las políticas de gobierno municipal no compensan la tendencia que se refleja en la pérdida de más de 3 puntos en la representatividad de los votos a nivel estatal, sino que, salvo en Barcelona, en las demás ciudades, lo superan. Y es que una política continuista con las anteriores, salpicada de declaraciones contra la huelga del metro como en Barcelona, o las primeras de Carmena respecto a los bancos, no sólo no alientan al voto sino que lo enfrían significativamente.

Y… la perenne cuestión nacional

La monarquía se sustenta en PP y PSOE centralmente pero con el pacto expreso desde el 78 de los partidos de las burguesías de Catalunya y Euskadi (CiU y PNV) que eran las garantes del control del problema nacional en ambas CCAA. Pues bien, en ese terreno, CiU desapareció y CDC se hunde elección a elección siendo ya sustituida por ERC, y el PNV que aparecía como más estable, empieza a desangrarse perdiendo la CCAA. El que además en las dos gane el color morado en un mapa totalmente azul, es un agravante muy importante de la crisis del régimen.

En Euskadi los 30.000 votos perdidos del PNV, que se acompañan de otros 10.000 de C’s y UPyD, alimentan los 7.000 que crece el PP, pero aún con el incremento de la abstención, se ven superados por un Podemos que también retrocede. Parecido ocurre en Catalunya: los 70.000 de Unió quizás se dividen entre CDC y PP que también recoge la pérdida de 112.000 votos de C’s, subiendo 40.000; pero aún y así CDC pierde 85.000 –un poco más que Podemos- y ERC sólo rentabiliza 30.000 de ellos. Así pues, y al margen del número de diputados, la crisis de CDC continúa profundizándose y aunque el PP concentre el unionismo en el terreno nacional, y ERC el independentismo, hay un hueco significativo de 170.000 votos que dan aire a Podemos para ganar perdiendo.

El traspaso de votos de CDC a ERC no es mecánico, pero Girona capital se convierte en paradigma pues le da la mayoría a ERC. Justo en la cuna y alcaldía de Puigdemont (president de la Generalitat) y donde éste protagonizó el escándalo Ballesta, con la ruptura del pacto con ERC, sus intentos de acuerdo con PP y C’s, y el final con PSC. ERC queda sin duda, como el mayor referente del nacionalismo catalán con 629.000 votos, pero lejos de capitalizar siquiera las pérdidas de CDC.

El colmo de los colmos en las expectativas de Iglesias es que las únicas CCAA donde obtiene mayoría son Euskadi y Catalunya, en las que el tema del referéndum que tanto trata de olvidar, se convierte en crucial.

El tema es que no hay otras opciones de izquierda y terminan siendo los tuertos en el reino de los ciegos. Porque EH Bildu sigue atrapada en su versión pro-burguesa de la mano de EA y sigue perdiendo (ahora 30.000 votos), el BNG sigue en caída libre (aun cuando ahora fuera de la mano de Nós), y la CUP no se presenta en Catalunya.

En Euskadi sin embargo, y a pesar del retroceso global de Podemos-Ahal Dugu-IU-EQUO, hay que destacar que ganan en las 3 circunscripciones, desplazando al PNV en Bizkaia. Y en las 3 capitales, es de los pocos lugares que crece en votos, cosa que les lleva a ser primera fuerza en Donostia y Gasteiz y quedar a sólo 700 votos del PNV en Bilbo. Esos incrementos, coinciden con otros tantos del PSE-EE que enfrenta el sorpasso –o sea no van a Podemos-, y con caídas de EH-Bildu: en Gasteiz i Bilbo, pierde 4000 en cada ciudad y Podemos sube 2000 en las dos; en Donostia: pierden 2000 y sube 1000. Pareciera que para la mitad de los votantes perdidos por EH-Bildu, Podemos es un voto útil contra el PNV. La otra mitad va a la abstención que sube.

Podemos también retiene las 4 circunscripciones catalanas y 3 de las cuatro capitales aunque, a diferencia de Euskadi, perdiendo votos tanto en Barcelona como en Lleida y Tarragona. Por ejemplo en Lleida capital en que mantenían más de 3 puntos con ERC que les iba a la zaga, ahora sólo tienen 1,6 respecto al PP que queda segundo. También pierden votantes en Tarragona y Reus. Y en Girona, que no eran primera fuerza, ahora están un poco más lejos de serlo.

El cinturón industrial de Barcelona sigue siendo morado, pero las pérdidas en las grandes ciudades son significativas: 5.000 en Badalona, 4.000 en L’Hospitalet, 3.000 en Terrassa o Sabadell. En el Baix, ocurre lo mismo: 2000 en St Boi, 1300 en Cornellà o El Prat o 1000 en Gavà. En el Vallès, se repite: -1000 en Mollet, -600 en Granollers, pérdida también en Montornés…

Por el contrario, ECP amplía espacio en un interior teñido de ERC, y eso sólo se explica por una parte muy significativa del voto de la CUP-CC en pleno corazón independentista (ver cuadro).

Este resultado en el terreno nacional, mantiene este tema como central en el régimen español y en las inmediatas negociaciones de gobierno. Las cifras, se alejan aún más que el 20D de las salidas de reforma constitucional del PSOE, con la ampliación de la mayoría absoluta del PP en el Senado con 150 senadores y la reducción de los del PSOE y de Podemos-IU que pierden 4 cada uno.

Y para Podemos, se profundiza el problema que ya tenía el 20D, reforzándose los sectores que provienen de zonas donde han conseguido ser primera fuerza vendiendo el humo del referéndum pactado, recogiendo incluso un escépitco voto prestado procedente del independentismo que lo toma como mal menor.

Se le esfuma el referéndum tanto via reforma constitucional, como mediante acuerdos políticos «dentro de la constitución», como pregonaba Doménech. Queda, como no, decir «pues a la próxima, votadnos» y proponer esperar otros cuatro años -un tanto difícil de digerir a estas alturas-, o pasar del tema como ya ha venido diciendo Pablo Iglesias de que no había líneas rojas. La crisis en Podemos està sobre la mesa, y Echenique ya avisa que después del «amor y el diálogo» habrá que actuar con dureza contra «las malas hierbas» sin decir a quien se refiere… Pero así tampoco podrà cambiar que las promesas del referéndum pactado, se han esfumado a la velocidad de la luz y que si ahora ya han convencido menos, a la próxima puede ser peor.

¿Donde fue el voto de la CUP-CC?


Enlaces:

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2016/generales/congreso/

http://www.ara.cat/eleccions26j/dades/resultats/mapes

http://www.ara.cat/eleccions27s/dades/resultats/total/CI/25

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2015/municipales/09/08/22.html

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