La gravedad de la crisis del coronavirus y sus consecuencias ha abierto un debate sobre cómo será el mundo luego de la pandemia. Se escriben decenas de artículos. Algunos apuestan a una supuesta vuelta del “rol del estado” y a una mejor “redistribución de la riqueza”. Otros advierten que se podría estar ya en el camino del fortalecimiento del autoritarismo.
Escribe Miguel Sorans, dirigente de Izquierda Socialista y de la UIT-CI
La gravedad de la crisis no está en discusión. En primer lugar, de la pandemia. Millones de contagiados en 185 países y más de 100 mil muertos. En segundo lugar, las consecuencias sociales sobre los pueblos del mundo son graves, con millones sin trabajo o cobrando salarios reducidos por el rol nefasto de los grandes empresarios y banqueros del mundo. Con millones que no tienen acceso a la comida diaria o al agua para lavarse las manos. La crisis económica y social del capitalismo se va a profundizar. Muchos dicen que la crisis será como el crack capitalista de 1929. Pero en realidad venimos de la crisis del 2007/08 que fue igual o superior a la del ´29. Y ahora la titular del FMI, Kristalina Georgieva, alerta “que el mundo está en una recesión peor que en la crisis de 2008” (Clarín, Argentina, 26/3/20). O sea, que los propios jerarcas del imperialismo mundial nos dicen que ya estamos viviendo la peor crisis de la economía capitalista en toda su historia. Por primera vez se puede decir que el mundo capitalista está casi parado. Los de arriba nos dicen que es por la pandemia. Si y no. Porque, en realidad, el coronavirus vino a profundizar la crisis de la economía que ya existía. A fines de diciembre del 2019 ya se estaba al borde de una nueva recesión mundial.
¿Iríamos hacia un mundo mejor?
“Si hay un lado positivo en la pandemia de Covid-19, es que ha inyectado un sentido de unión en las sociedades polarizadas”. Para sorpresa de muchos esto fue dicho en una editorial del periódico británico Financial Times. Tal es el grado de la crisis que algunos voceros del imperialismo buscan dar una versión optimista y “solidaria” del capitalismo. Aseguran que: «La redistribución volverá a estar en la agenda. Los privilegios de los ancianos y ricos en cuestión. Las políticas hasta hace poco consideradas excéntricas, como los impuestos básicos sobre la renta y la riqueza, tendrán que estar en la mezcla» (BAE Negocios 5/4/20). Otros. como Joseph Stiglitz o la economista norteamericana Carmen Reinhart, proponen una “colaboración” de los países ricos” otorgando, por ejemplo, una moratoria de las deudas externas.
Es claro que ante la gravedad de la crisis y las convulsiones sociales que se podrían crear, existen sectores burgueses que proponen algunos paliativos para intentar amortiguar la debacle que se vive. Incluso no podemos descartar que alguna medida excepcional se concrete por la crisis y la presión social. Pero no habrá mejoras de fondo, ni progresos para la clase trabajadora y los sectores populares. Ya se anuncian más de 50 millones de nuevos desocupados en el mundo. El imperialismo y las multinacionales buscarán hacer descargar otra vez la crisis sobre las espaldas de las masas, con nuevos planes de ajuste, saqueo y explotación. El único cambio posible, la única redistribución de la riqueza en favor de los pueblos, vendrá de la lucha por imponer gobiernos de las y los trabajadores en todo el mundo.
¿El peligro de un mundo más autoritario?
En la coyuntura inmediata los gobiernos están aprovechando el tema de la pandemia y la cuarentena para tratar de desmovilizar a las masas. Para esto los gobiernos están apelando a la unidad nacional y, en otros casos, a la militarización de la crisis, agudizando los rasgos autoritarios de muchos regímenes y gobiernos.
La crisis sanitaria agrandó el papel de las fuerzas armadas (reparten comida, instalan hospitales, hacen traslados) y de las policías para el control de las cuarentenas. También ha crecido el control virtual. Se estima que unos 40 países utilizan los sistemas de localización de los móviles y distintas aplicaciones para vigilar las cuarentenas o seguir los movimientos y contactos personales, en China, Hong Kong, Corea del Sur, Taiwán, Singapur, Rusia, Israel, Estados Unidos y muchos países de la Unión Europea. Ocho grandes operadores europeos, entre ellos Telefónica, van a proporcionar a la Comisión Europea datos de la localización de sus clientes de telefonía móvil.
Efectivamente existe el peligro que luego de la pandemia se pretenda utilizar todo esto contra los pueblos que se rebelen o para tratar de evitar que lo hagan. No es una tendencia nueva. Ya antes había avances de gobiernos ultra reaccionarios y autoritarios (Trump, Bolsonaro, Erdogan, Putin, Victor Orbán en Hungría, Nicolás Maduro en Venezuela o el dictador Rodrigo Duterte, de Filipinas). O la represión en Chile de los carabineros sobre las movilizaciones contra Piñera. Pero está por verse si van a predominar los regímenes autoritarios y represivos. Porque lo que predominaba antes de la crisis del coronavirus era la tendencia a la desestabilización política de los regímenes y gobiernos capitalistas por movilizaciones populares. Al inicio del coronavirus existía una oleada revolucionaria de luchas que estaba conmoviendo al mundo. Parte de esa oleada eran las rebeliones populares en Chile, en Líbano o la huelga obrera de Francia. No parece que haya un retroceso estructural en la disposición a movilizarse, más bien existe un reacomodo coyuntural del movimiento de masas, que se ajusta a la situación de cuarentena para tratar de evitar, lógicamente, el contagio. Por ahora no se producen movilizaciones masivas pero sí huelgas o protestas parciales para reclamar por la seguridad sanitaria frente a la pandemia o contra despidos y rebajas salariales. Pero una vez superado el coronavirus puede haber nuevas movilizaciones o rebeliones populares en muchas partes del mundo contra las consecuencias sociales y económicas de la crisis del coronavirus. Para eso nos preparamos los socialistas revolucionarios.
Los justificados temores de Henry Kissinger
Quien quizás mejor haya reflejado esta posibilidad, de un mundo con nuevas y mayores confrontaciones sociales que cuestionan al sistema capitalista-imperialista, ha sido Henry Kissinger, uno de los referentes históricos del imperialismo.
El ex canciller de Richard Nixon, que inició el acercamiento de la China de Mao al imperialismo yanqui (1972), y que sufrió la derrota de la guerra de Vietnam (1975), publicó una columna de opinión en The Wall Street Journal (5/4/20).
“Cuando termine la pandemia de Covid-19, se percibirá que las instituciones de muchos países han fallado”, pronosticó. “El desafío para los líderes es manejar la crisis mientras se construye el futuro. El fracaso podría incendiar el mundo”, advirtió. Kissinger, a los 96 años de edad, mantiene su lucidez en defensa del sistema. Es consciente que los pueblos visualizan la debacle: “se percibirá que las instituciones…han fallado”. Y que el mundo se “podría incendiar”. Por eso en esa misma columna aconseja que se “deberían tratar de mejorar los efectos del caos inminente en las poblaciones más vulnerables del mundo”.
Su temor, como fiel representante de las oligarquías del mundo, está justificado porque Kissinger sabe de la oleada de rebeliones que se venían dando desde el 2019. Sabe que los pueblos están hartos de los ajustes capitalistas y del crecimiento de la pobreza y de la explotación. Los Kissinger y compañía le temen a ese posible “incendio” de las rebeliones populares. La confrontación social está planteada como una hipótesis basada en la realidad. El mundo post coronavirus será la continuidad agravada de todo lo que conocemos hoy del capitalismo. Por eso desde la UIT-CI hemos convocado “a la más amplia unidad de acción de las organizaciones obreras, populares, de la juventud, del movimiento de mujeres, el movimiento en defensa del ambiente, como de la izquierda anticapitalista y socialista, para coordinar un movimiento de lucha internacional por el plan de emergencia obrero y popular en la perspectiva de la lucha a fondo por terminar con este sistema capitalista-imperialista e imponer gobiernos de la clase trabajadora y el pueblo” (Llamamiento internacional, marzo 2020. www.uit-ci.org). Los cambios sólo podrán venir de la movilización de la clase trabajadora y los pueblos.
14 de abril de 2020
(read in english)
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